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Bar2

27 July 98
Y2K Convergence: Strap Yourself In

A Y2K scenario for all seasons

... based on only the highest quality speculation and wild conjecture:

In the next 18 months -

  • Clinton faces departure from office in disgrace, maybe prematurely
  • Yeltsin faces being deposed by "rational reactionary" Victor Ilyukhin
  • Y2K non-compliance strikes periodically, regionally, intermittently
    in every nation, in every systems infrastructure with sweeping,
    economic and social effects sustained for 10 years
  • Hackers exacerbate Y2K repercussions with concerted e-attacks
  • Governance crises, here and abroad, prompt an era of unstable
    international relations
  • Third world nations and extremist governments step to the front
    in a vacuum left by chaos in first world nations

    ... nahhhhhh.

    24 July 98
    MicroSquat's Y2K Chinese Menu

    MicroSoft's Y2K Resource Center has a Y2K compliance scale. This
    should give you a fair idea of general Y2K compliance prospects:

  • Compliant
  • Compliant with minor issues
  • Not Compliant
  • Testing yet to be completed
  • Will not test

    Here's MS's product page's current Win 95 compliance status...

    Compliant: YES with minor issues...
    and Win 98's...
    Compliant: YES

    The Swingin' Swine called a Microsquat techie with this colloquy resulting:

    Swine
    "... so, if I install Win 98 on top of Win 95, my windows software will
    be compliant... right?

    MS Techie
    "... sssssss... can't understand... ssss... question... sssssss... our
    connection seems... ssss... breaking up... sssssssss... *click*"

    Get the whole fractal story at MicroSquat Y2K Central

    One more thing... major PC hardware manufacturers are now hedging
    at loading Win 98 on their systems because it just don't work right.

    And this final response from Stavros, the owner of a small Greek restaurant
    where Piglet gets his daily gallon fix of rigid caffeine: "Tanks Gott for Cheezus, dats all I can zay. Eez in Gott's hands and dare ain't nuttin' we gonna do
    'bout eet. Iffa we dohn havva no foods, denna we dohn havva no foods.
    Dat's it. Juss holda on-a-to you butt and kiss it goodbye. Anyway, nuttin
    gonna happen. Anyway, whaddya gunna do, right? Life is hard."

    Strange... Piglet felt better after hearing that than he did after reading the MS
    Y2K compliance page. And it brought us closer to Stavros.

    23 July 98
    29 Wall Street Firms Pass First Test

    NYSE claims 29 brokerages passed their first Y2K date rollover test.
    More tests are scheduled for March this year.

    The Aerial Oinker was present and accounted for on Waal Street
    when the NYSE auto-trades volume threw a monkey wrench in the
    trading gears. But they didn't have half the current volume then,
    and they weren't dependent upon high volume systems in the current
    range of foreign nations then.

    Devaluation of Asian currencies came back on us, and still haunts the
    Asian nations it targeted. Its entirely possible that Y2K may do the same,
    via other nations' systems Y2K outages, and be further complicated by
    foreign economies vulnerabilities during their currency recoveries.

    22 July 98
    Y2K: Sustained Chain Reaction

    Periodic and Intermittent Impacts for a Decade

    The FAA says *one* of their key mainframe computers is Y2K
    compliant. IBM, the system's manufacturer, says they don't
    even have the skills or tool to fully test that theory.

    Why the variation in stories? Part of it is likely a result of low-end
    damage control, public relations and panic-prevention on the part
    of the FAA, and a little sales promotion on the part of IBM. But it
    gets better: the FAA's mainframe reads "01" as 1975... all the
    way to 32... or to 2007, which is the earliest the bits and bytes
    will go nuclear.

    Seems reasonable to re-engineer the acronym to read "Y2K +/- 10".

    Watch the wanted ads blossom with tweaks for programmers/code
    writers, and hardware/software installation gurus. Watch budgets
    for systems and software (and related law suits for systems failures)
    grow parallel. If you follow the potential ripple effect far enough
    in that chain of events, the potential overall economic impact
    becomes undebatably grave.

    13 July 98
    Wall Street Y2K Exercise

    SIAC runs a two firm, 100-share test buy/sell execution on forced-up
    date of 29 December 1999. Results/impact hit the books after the
    traditional four-day lapse, and will be announced, plus or minus some
    public version spin, on or about Thursday, 16 July. Larger volume,
    multiple transaction exercise is expected circa October this year.

    OPSEC's wish list of additional Y2K exercise candidates:

  • IRS (Not likely: they're still looking for that missing $4 billion system)
  • DOE (Regional electrical & nuke power grids)
  • DOJ
  • NRO/NSA/CIA (most likely to run tests... but you never know)
  • Telecommunications companies (hundreds since deregulation invoked)
  • Equifax
  • Aircraft & Automotive manufacturers ("chipped" vehicle systems)
  • All major regional ISPs and Internet network/backbone server firms.
  • All manufacturers of major computer hardware/software components

    Notably, to our knowledge, no major PC manufacturers have developed
    and made available free Y2K patches even for their pre-fab systems.
    In fact, Dell, Gateway, Compaq, Toshiba, et al, are similarly unresponsive
    on the subject.

    19 JULY 98
    Equipment & Tools

    Sat TV Links
    http://www.minot.ndak.net/~brichard/dss.html

    Iridium Sat Cell Phones & Pagers
    http://www.iridium.com/

    Cordless Tools
    http://www.porter-cable.com/
    http://www.porter-cable.com/news/bammer.html



    Bar2